Another year of FCS football is about to get underway.
There are lots of story lines as always, like can North Dakota State threepeat. But the first few weeks of the season are always about who can pull the upset over a FBS team. Let me go ahead and spell out some guesses at this years upsets.
1. Northern Iowa over Iowa State.
I think that this is the biggest chance for an upset because Iowa State is young and Northern Iowa has a history of playing both Iowa State and Iowa very close. Iowa State's young team combined with their defensive strength being in the secondary could give Northern Iowa's running game a chance to get going. They have traditionally done well on defense, and Iowa State is not going to have a great offense. So, I think UNI beats ISU tomorrow.
2. North Dakota State over Kansas State.
Coach Craig Bohl is very good at defeating FBS teams, and NDSU is the defending champs. We are going to see early if the pounding NDSU style can defeat KSt., which always had trouble with Nebraska when they were both in the Big 12.
3. Wofford over Baylor.
The third most likely upset is Wofford over Baylor. Mainly because Baylor no longer has RGIII, and they are going to be overlooking this team. Wofford's ball control offense will move the ball, and automatically stop the possibility of a blow out. Wofford is returning only 5 starters on offense and 5 more on defense, but Coach Ayers always has a good defense, and the situation on offense is not as dire as it looks. Jeff Ashley their best receiver is back, as is Johnson a solid running back. Also they are returning Cam Flowers, who had a great freshman campaign and saw plenty of touches, even though he does not count as one of the 5 returning starters. The real question is about James Lawson, the QB. How will he fare in his first start.
4. McNeese St. over South Florida
McNeese State is always full of athletes. They are almost always competing for their league title, and South Florida has never been a power house football program. I am not sure McNeese State has the horses to get it done, and they do have a small history of not performing in big games, but this is a new year. One can only wait and see.
5. Southern Illinois over Illinois
This in-state rivalry gives it some added flair, but Southern Illinois can impress if over looked. Illinois is coming off a fast start last year, but they faded. Will they over look their opening day opponent? It is possible, and if so Southern Illinois could do the unthinkable.
6. Eastern Washington over Oregon State.
This is the fifth most likely, although I think we are now in the unlikely category. Eastern Washington has defeated Pac 10 teams in the past, so they may not get over looked. Oregon State is probably over rated at 25, but Eastern Washington is going to have to bring their A game to win this one. Still it is more likely than Howard beating Eastern Michigan or Austin Peay beating Tennessee or even NC Central beating Duke. Although I almost went with Villanova over Boston College, but could not do it.
There are other match ups of importance not involving FBS teams. Again this year the App State v. Montana game is going to be a huge one. Last year App State won, but this year it is at Montana. This game carries some extra weight as Montana State destroyed Monmouth 42-24 and it was really not even that close of a game. If Montana wants a Big Sky title, they are going to need to win here against App State.
Delaware did beat Jacksonville 51-35, but they were tied at half, and giving up that many points to Jacksonville is not a good sign for the Blue Hens. They may have trouble in the CAA this year.
South Dakota State taking on Butler could be fun too. SDSU made the playoffs last year and the attempt to prove it is not a fluke is on. They should be able to handle Butler, but you never know how a team is going to handle success. Keep an eye on this game just to make sure the Jackrabbits are ready for a tough MVC schedule.
I don't care much for pre-season polls. Let's wait to start paying attention until next week at least.
