Thursday, October 28, 2010

Week 9 Preview

Big games this week has to start with VMI vs. Army. This is an FCS versus as FBS school, and two military academies going head to head. Army actually has a winning record right now, but it should still be fun and has to be listed as another possible FCS win over the FBS.

Control of the Ivy League is up for grabs win two undefeated teams in conference face off. Penn will host Brown. Penn is ranked and ought to win, but that is why they play the games. If Brown wins, it will throw the Ivy League into utter chaos.

Wofford gets the Citadel at home. Citadel has yet to win a Southern Conference game, but these two in state rivals really don’t get along. Add in all the close games and losses in the Top 10 last week, and Wofford is vulnerable. They cannot look ahead to their final two big games against Chattanooga and Appy State.

Elsewhere in the Southern Conference, Appy State takes on Furman. Furman had Chattanooga beat, but blew it. Now they travel to Appy. Number 1’s have not been safe and this ought to be a decent test for Appy. Let us see if they look ahead.

Speaking of in state rivals, I have to add Alabama State at Alabama A&M. These two teams are not in the playoff picture, but are playing in the Magic City Classic. Slight edge to Alabama State, but who knows.

William and Mary comes off of their comeback win to play at UNC, yep the University of North Carolina. Now William and Mary took down Virginia last year. Let us see if they can sneak up on UNC. My upset of the week is right here. I will take William and Mary.

Other than that there are not a lot of earth shattering games. This week is basically seeing if the late season match ups that we think are going to be huge (Wofford v. Appy State; Montana v. Montana St.; Delaware v. Villanova) continue to shape up. The Top 25 has to continue on and not look ahead.

The week starts tonight as Bethune-Cookman tries to stay undefeated by hosting South Carolina A&T. It should be a walk through game for Bethune-Cookman. The MEAC is their’s to lose.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Wow what a week

Okay, I have been a bit behind on the blog. The new polls almost all agree that Delaware drops to 6th and everyone else slides up a spot, except the FCSNow Poll which puts Delaware at 5th still in front of Villanova. The Coaches Poll interestingly now has all but one of the first place votes for Appy State. The other still goes to Stephen F. Austin, who is 3rd behind Jacksonville State, who got no first place votes. No respect for the easy schedule faced by Jacksonville State. Montana is 7th, and by the way, Montana was going to be my outside shot at the national title winner.

And yes, I am sticking with Delaware as my national title team, although the schedule does not get any easier for them. They were ahead the whole game on William and Mary. It took the insertion of the back up quarterback to win. His first drive included three passes, the third for a touchdown. He also steered the winning drive. But don't forget that Delaware was there to win it. They simply missed the game winning field goal.

Montana, Eastern Washington, Chatanooga, and Montana State all made pretty amazing comebacks to win their games. Montana's was literally in the last seconds and Chattanooga's was on the road against Furman for their first win over Furman in 15 tries.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

My Top 5 and National Champion prediction

It is time to pick the national champion. What is a blog for if not for prognostication. It seems we ought to start with the very stable Top 5 in all polls. Appalachin State, Delaware, Jacksonville State, William and Mary, and Stephen F. Austin.

First, let me rule out William and Mary. They are 4th in major polls, but are not receiving any first place votes. The only team in the top 5 that no one believes is the best in the country. That is because no one believes that they are even the best in their own conference. William and Mary wins because of the rushing game of Jonathon Grimes. He leads the team in attempts, yards, and touchdowns, and comes in tied for third in receptions. As he goes is so goes William and Mary. This is a little too one dimensional for me. Also, they have not been challenged yet. With the lone exception of their win at home against Villanova (31-24), they have not been tested or failed. They have already had the easy part of the schedule. They have yet to face Delaware, New Hampshire, and James Madison. They lost on the road against Umass, and barely squeaked by Old Dominion (21-17) and Maine on the road. Expect more losses. So I have them at number 5 in my own poll.

Stephen F. Austin is another team that I have to rule out. They can put up big numbers, but have only done so against the weaker competition. They have two decent wins both close. Northern Iowa by two and McNeese State by five. Both were on the road, but they may actually be facing their toughest test this season at Sam Houston State this weekend. I do think they are better than William and Mary, but not enough to run a four round tournament against the best of the best, even if they get a home game or two. I have Stephen F. Austin at number 4.

Appalachin State is next. I don’t think that they will win. Count me among the skeptics that Appy can win it all. They usually get the benefit of the doubt since they beat Michigan a few years ago. But this is a different team. They are totally depending on junior quarterback DeAndre Presley. He may very well be the player of the year, so it is not a bad choice of people to rely on. Presley has 25 more carries than his closest person, and 200 more yards than anyone the team. The desire to stop him and Appy’s penchant for starting slow has lead to DeAndre throwing for 14 touchdowns. Still this team has not face a real test. They beat Chattanooga in Game 1, but had to come from way behind to do it with an amazing late rally. They also beat Elon by just a couple, and they are not so good this year. They gave up a ton of yards throw the air. Thus, they have a suspect defense, and still have yet to face Wofford, Furman, and Georgia Southern. Great team, but not my pick. They are number 3 for me.

Jacksonville State is next. Yes, this team is facing the easy conference, but they did beat Ole Miss. Even if Ole Miss is weak this year, they still went into Oxford and won. They also beat Chattanooga, and a surprisingly tough Georgia State squad in Georgia. They found a way to beat Eastern Illinios as well. They have been tested, and they have survived. They have a strong running attack that does not feature one back to the exclusion of others. This also helps quarterback Marques Ivory not get hit very often as he is not called on to run too much. Ivory can throw as well with 9 TDs. Coty Blanchard has another 6 showing that they can have a balanced attack. Blanchard has 238 yards rushing as well. Jamaal Young has the most TD’s, longest run, and highest per carry average, but Calvin Middleton, who missed two games, has the most attempts and highest per game average. Darius Barksdals has the second most carries on the team, and thus cannot be ignored. I have them at 2, and a clear threat to win it all.

Delaware is my top team in the nation. They are too good to ignore. They beat James Madison in Virginia (13-10), and they have taken down everyone else fairly comfortably. Yes, they still need to face William and Mary as well as Umass and Villanova, and even New Hampshire. They also have not played much away from home. Still, Delaware has a couple of really amazing stats. They have a team total of 14 interceptions. One of which was returned for a TD. Fourteen interceptions is two a game. They have only thrown two themselves, one of which was by the back up. Add in two fumble returns, and you can see why the Blue Hen Defense is a solid group. A group that held the team that beat Virginia Tech to only 10 points. The second very impressive stat comes from freshman running back Andrew Pierce. Pierce is averaging 125 yards a game on the ground plus another 11 in receptions. If he has another average game in his next contest, he will go over 1,000 yards for the season. That is amazing. Can anyone stop him? As good as DeAndre Presley is, I think Pierce has my vote as top performer. Oh yeah, the team as a whole averages over 200 yards on the ground a game, add in 171 through the air, and you have a winning combo. I also like having Pat Devlin as the quarterback. This senior has experience and can be trusted in close games.

What is even more impressive is how this team is built for the future. Yes, losing Pat Devlin next year will be a loss, as will leading receiver Philip Thaxton and 3rd option Tommy Crosby. But Nihja White and Rob Jones are sophomores. Jones actually has the best yards per catch average. Red Shirt Freshman Trevor Sasek is getting playing time and looks to be a good replacement for Devlin at quarterback. Oh yeah, they get Andrew Pierce back. His main back up, Leon Jackson is also a sophomore. They will be running behind basically the same offensive line as only one single senior is on the O-Line anywhere including the bench. Defense is much the same story. Leading tackler, Andrew Harrison, junior. Tied with Harrison when we count combined tackles, Paul Worrilow, Sophomore. Worrilow is also the one with two fumble recoveries. Now their secondary is littered with Seniors, which means that next year might see a decrease in interceptions. They return only Marcus Burley, Sophomore, is actually third on the team in solo tackles. Still, the young guys are getting playing time behind them, and if they gel then the team will be tough to stop next year too.

There you have my top five and pick to win it all. Later I will post the rest of my top 10, and my one dark horse, who I actually think is the team with the second best chance to win. Wait and see . . .

Monday, October 18, 2010

Week 7 Polls

One can expect some changes in the polls this week after a few upsets.

The Coaches Poll has the same top 5 with Appy on top and Delaware and Jacksonville State each getting one number 1 vote. Villanova slides up a spot to 6. Montana jumps up from 11 to 7. Eastern Washington follows them from 12 to 8. New Hampshire gets into the top 10 from 15 thanks to its victory over James Madison. And Wofford rounds out the top 10 (up from 17). James Madison and UMass are 11 and 12 respectively thanks to their losses. Southeast Missouri State is next up from 20 and Liberty is 14 from 21. Oddly South Carolina State falls to 16 from 9 while Montana State falls to 15 from 10. Bethune-Cookman enters to polls at 19, Northern Arizona at 20, and Furman at 25.

The Sports Network Poll has a few minor differences. Again Stephen F. Austin has a first place vote, but sits at 5th behind William and Mary. Wofford and New Hampshire are 9th and 10th rather than the other way around. Westerne Illinois is 21, Northern Arizona is 22, Chattanooga is 24 and Furman 25. Those are all new to the poll this week. If you are wondering about Bethune-Cookman, they were on last week's poll at 23 and have moved up to 14.

FCSNow is not up yet.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Week 7 in review

What a crazy week in the FCS. Let us look at it by conference today.

The Ivy League is still Penn’s to lose as they won, and Harvard coughed up a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter to lose to Lehigh. Yale on the other had did remain unbeaten with a 4th quarter touchdown. They share the Ivy League lead.

The surprising league today was the Big Sky. Eastern Washington had to come back to Northern Colorado. Northern Arizona handled Montana State in the biggest surprise of the day by a score of 34-7. Montana and Portland State went to the wire as well, but Montana ended their west coast jinx 23-21. This is now basically a three way tie at the top between Eastern Washington (4-1), Montana (4-1), and Montana State (3-1) who all have one loss in the conference and a 5-2 overall record. Northern Arizona is 4-2 overall but also only has one conference loss (2-1).

The Big South featured Liberty rolling over VMI 41-7. Liberty is undefeated in conference and 5-2 over all. They are not getting a lot of national respect, but they have a good offense. Technically Coastal Carolina is undefeated in conference too thanks to a win today, but this is Liberty’s to lose.

The Colonial Athletic Conference had Delaware and Villanova win, but James Madison lost to New Hampshire 28-14, and Richmond surprised Umass 11-10.


The Great West saw an upset as well as Southern Utah beat Cal Poly 20-7, and the Cal Poly touchdown as meaningless as the game ticked away. South Dakota U (soon to be Great West) lost to Northern Iowa.

The MEAC served up surprises as well. Bethune-Cookman shut out South Carolina State 14-0. I did not see that one coming. Hampton stayed undefeated in the MEAC and 5-1 overall. Florida State’s 31-0 drubbing of Savanah State keeps them with an outside hope of a MEAC title.

The Missouri Valley remains a mystery. South Dakota State’s 31-10 victory over Southern Illinois muddies the water in the MVC. Every team now has a loss. Youngstown State’s victory over Western Illinois was also a shocker and cost Western a chance to grab a lead in conference.

The NEC is Robert Morris as they showed again by beating Albany 38-0. Wagner is next in conference and they won 22-14 over St. Francis PA.

The Ohio Valley Conference is a showdown between undefeated Jacksonville State (including that big win at Ole Miss) and SE Missouri State, the surprise team this year who is undefeated in conference and 5-1 overall. Jacksonville State had no problem with Tennessee State 24-0, and SE Missouri survived Austin Peay after a slow start 41-24. They were down 13-14 at half.

Colgate has the Patriot league lead, I think. They won 44-3 over Cornell (Ivy League). This league is weak overall.

Pioneer Conference is going to be Jacksonville, who hung an 86-7 victory on Valpo, or Dayton, who beat Butler 33-13. Both are 5-1 overall and undefeated in conference.

The Southern Conference went according to plan. Wofford beat Western Carolina 45-14 and Appy State beat Citadel 39-10. Both are undefeated in Southern Conference play. Chattanooga pulled off a second half come back (35-27) on Georgia Southern to remain in the chase with one conference loss and they have yet to play Wofford.

Southland also went pretty calmly. SF Austin continued to roll as did Sam Houston State. When those two meet it ought to be fun. McNeese State gave LSU all they could handle, but were unable to pull off the upset. LSU ran up the score at the end to try and avoid being a laughing stock. McNeese St. was only down 16-10 at half.

SWAC ends our tour with Grambling State showing a great game in beating Alcorn State 38-28. Southern let Jackson State have a tough time of it. That game ended with Jackson St squeeking at a 49-45 victory.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Look ahead at week 7

There are some big games out there this week.

Montana State (10) at Northern Arizona
Montana State is a top rated team, but they are on the road and Northern Arizona is no push over. They are just outside the Top 25 in the coaches poll. A nice road challenge for Montana State.

McNeese State at LSU
Hey, it is one of the final shots at adding to the FCS upset list. McNeese St. is not going to be great this year, so this is their Super Bowl. LSU has a habit of playing down to its opponents, but they always manage to pull it out in the end.

New Hampshire (15) at James Madison (6)
This is the Game of the Week in my opinion. In fact, James Madison might be playing in the game of the week for the next several weeks. The incredibly tough CAA conference is starting to weed itself out. JMU has already one loss in conference, and cannot afford to lose again. A HUGE game for both teams.

Bethune-Cookman at South Carolina State (9)
This is the FCSNow Game of the Week, but I think that South Carolina State will roll. Bethune-Cookman is lurking outside of the Top 25 and a win here would put them in. In fact, Bethune-Cookman is undefeted, but their opponents have not been SC St. calibur. It is in South Carolina, so I am not sure this will stay close.

Villanova (7)at Maine
I think this game is interesting because both of these teams are reeling. Maine had higher hopes, but they have not come to fruition. Villanova was off last week after their season took a giant hit. They are still ranked rather high, but they have been knocked off the Number 1 slot, and have yet to get back in the win column. Can they get up and make a run at the CAA title? This game should say a lot since it is on the road.

Appy ought to have an easy time of it this week, so don't expect anything big to go down. Still, some real nice games.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

The New Polls

Several New Polls are out now. Until now I have been using the FCS Now poll. That polls is virtually unchanged at the top. Appy State is still number one with Delaware, Jacksonville State, and Stephen F. Austin getting first place votes although William and Mary is fourth and Stephen F. Austin is fifth. I was right about Grambling State(24) and Wofford(17) making their first appearances, but so too did Penn(19).

The Sports Division I FCS Poll is also out. It has the same Top 10 as the FCS Now poll, but they reverse Montana State (9)and South Carolina State (10). Grambling State does not make an appearance on this list, and Wofford had been ranked for a while. Elon is still on the list at 24 despite being 2-4. Penn (25)is on the list for the first time along with Bethune-Cookman (23).

The more important FCS Coaches Poll is out as well. From now on I will probably use the coaches poll as the standard. What is so interesting about the coaches poll is that they have the same teams in the top 10 following the South Carolina St (9) and Montana State (10) of FCS NOW. However, they put Stephen F. Austin (4) above William and Mary (5), and Delaware, which is number 2, has no first place votes. Penn makes the list (25) as does Liberty for their first time (21) and Southeast Missouri State (20).

Anyway you slice it the clear favorites are Appy State, Delaware, Jacksonville State, William and Mary, and Stephen F. Austin. Everyone else seems a bit further back in the pack.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Oct 9 - Week 6 - In review

Well, that was an exciting day of football. Some close games coming down to the wire. Let us run through the Top 25.

#1 Appalachin State beats #16 Elon 34-31. Elon briefly led 10-7, but Appy had this game in hand most of the day. A late Elon score made it closer, but Appy wins and will probably stay #1. Elon might just fall out of the Top 25.

#2 Delaware beats Maine 26-7. This was not a real test for the Blue Hens.

#3 Jacksonville State beats Tennesse Martin 30-20. Again this was not as close as it looks. Jacksonville State was up 10-0 after the 1st and 23-6 at half.

#4 William and Mary beats Rhode Island 26-7. William and Mary cruised to another victory in the tough CAA.

#5 Stephen F. Austin beats #23 McNeese State 32-27. This was a close and exciting game. Austin scored in the last minute of play to give them the win. McNeese St. had just gone for 10 unanswered to take the lead, but was unable to hold on. Possible Game of the Week.

#6 Villanova was idle.

#7 James Madison beat Townson 17-13. Madison put up 14 in the first quarter, but then seemed to take the rest of the game off. They hang on to win unimpressively.

#8 UMass is idle.

#9 South Carolina State beats Norfolk State 34-13. A big win for SC St.

#10 Montana State beats Portland State 44-31. Portland raced out to an 18-3 lead at the end of the 1st, but Montana State responded with 34 unanswered points before a late rally put more points on the board for Portland State, but the game was over already.

#11 Richmond lost to #22 New Hampshire 0-17. It is clear that Richmond was overrated, but not scoring at all is embarassing. New Hampshire basically ended any hopes Richmond had at seeing post season play.

#12 Montana beats Idaho State 47-28. This is a good win for Montana who appears to have recovered their balance. Back to top form.

#13 Texas State lost to Southeast Louisiana 24-49. Texas State was down seven at half and only managed a field goal in the 2nd half.

#14 Eastern Washington beats #18 Northern Arizona 21-14. Eastern Washington was up 14-0 at halftime, but ended up with a hard fought win.

#15 Northern Iowa lost to #25 Southern Illinois 38-45. Southern Illinois owned the first half, Northern Iowa the second half, but overtime went to Southern. Not a knock out blow for Northern Iowa, but a clear indication that Southern Illinois is for real. Look for them to move up in the rankings.

#17 Georgia Southern lost to Wofford 31-33. Georgia Sothern's defense kept them in this game and Wofford tried to give it to them with a missed extra point that kept the margine at 2 pts, but in the end a draw play was taken down for a loss of 6 yards and the clock ran out on Georgia Southern. Their defense was responsible for 14 points, but they still lost at home. Look for Wofford to be ranked this next week.

#19 Cal Poly beats Old Dominion 50-37. Not a lot of defense, but Cal Poly got it done on the road.

#20 Western Illinois lost to South Dakota State 29-33. SD State had been so close yet so far. Their nice outing against Nebraska is starting to pay off. They stayed in the game and this time had what it took to come out on top.

#21 North Dakota State beats Youngstown State 34-29. A big second quarter of 21 points was enough to put them ahead for good. ND State keeps hope alive for playoffs with a big win.

#24 Liberty beats CSU 44-20. Liberty continue its impressive season with an easy victory in conference. It was their Big South Conference opener.

One would expect some new faces in the Top 25 this week. Wofford seems to be one of them. Perhaps Grambling State, who had a win this week as well will be another. Expect McNeese State to fall out of the rankings and maybe Northern Arizona too. Elon also has a shot at disappearing from the rankings.

This week in FCS . . . Oct 9

After last week where the top teams all played each other making it a very exciting week, this week is relatively calm. Last week we saw Delaware take out James Madison and William and Mary defeat Villanova. This week is much more focused on the bottom of the Top 25 and in conference show downs.

Games to watch:
bAppalachin State versus Elon
This game is much more important for Elon. Elon is ranked 16, but is already a 2-3 team with one loss in the Southern Conference. If they lose this one, it will put them at 1-2 in the conference, and that will make it a tough road just to get to number 2 in the Southern Conference. However, we have seen lately that the #1 ranking is hard to keep, so maybe Appy St. is ripe for an upset.

Wofford versus Georgia Southern
Wofford is now in the other receiving votes category and a 3-1 team after their upset of Furman last week. Georgia Southern is 17 in the nation and also 3-1. The winner here has the inside track to the number 2 spot in the Southern Conference, and that usually gets you an invite into post season play.

North Dakota St. versus Youngstown St.
North Dakota St. is still 21st in the nation, but a 2-3 school overall with an ugly 0-2 record in the Missouri Valley Conference. Youngstown St. has to be where North Dakota St. turns it around to have any hope.

McNeese St. versus Stephen F. Austin
McNeese should not be ranked, but they are (23). They lost to Cal Poly and it was not close. But they still have a shot at the Southland title, but to do that they have to beat Stephen F. Austin, who is ranked 5th in the nation. Another loss outgh to drop McNeese St. out of the rankings and crush any playoff hope. They are at home.

Northern Iowa versus Southern Illinois
The process of weeding out the contenders in the Missouri Valley. Southern Illinois just made the top 25, and Northern Illinois is 15. This ought to be a good game.

Welcome!!!

Welcome to a blog dedicated to the FCS or Football Championship Subdivision, or I-AA for those of you still stuck in the past. This is the highest level of college football in the land where a real champion is crowned. I hope you enjoy the discussion and please join in.

Full disclosure. I went to Wofford College and grew up watching the Southern Conference (back when ETSU actually had a football team). So if you detect a pro-Southern Conference bias, you are probably right.

Enjoy!