It is time to pick the national champion. What is a blog for if not for prognostication. It seems we ought to start with the very stable Top 5 in all polls. Appalachin State, Delaware, Jacksonville State, William and Mary, and Stephen F. Austin.
First, let me rule out William and Mary. They are 4th in major polls, but are not receiving any first place votes. The only team in the top 5 that no one believes is the best in the country. That is because no one believes that they are even the best in their own conference. William and Mary wins because of the rushing game of Jonathon Grimes. He leads the team in attempts, yards, and touchdowns, and comes in tied for third in receptions. As he goes is so goes William and Mary. This is a little too one dimensional for me. Also, they have not been challenged yet. With the lone exception of their win at home against Villanova (31-24), they have not been tested or failed. They have already had the easy part of the schedule. They have yet to face Delaware, New Hampshire, and James Madison. They lost on the road against Umass, and barely squeaked by Old Dominion (21-17) and Maine on the road. Expect more losses. So I have them at number 5 in my own poll.
Stephen F. Austin is another team that I have to rule out. They can put up big numbers, but have only done so against the weaker competition. They have two decent wins both close. Northern Iowa by two and McNeese State by five. Both were on the road, but they may actually be facing their toughest test this season at Sam Houston State this weekend. I do think they are better than William and Mary, but not enough to run a four round tournament against the best of the best, even if they get a home game or two. I have Stephen F. Austin at number 4.
Appalachin State is next. I don’t think that they will win. Count me among the skeptics that Appy can win it all. They usually get the benefit of the doubt since they beat Michigan a few years ago. But this is a different team. They are totally depending on junior quarterback DeAndre Presley. He may very well be the player of the year, so it is not a bad choice of people to rely on. Presley has 25 more carries than his closest person, and 200 more yards than anyone the team. The desire to stop him and Appy’s penchant for starting slow has lead to DeAndre throwing for 14 touchdowns. Still this team has not face a real test. They beat Chattanooga in Game 1, but had to come from way behind to do it with an amazing late rally. They also beat Elon by just a couple, and they are not so good this year. They gave up a ton of yards throw the air. Thus, they have a suspect defense, and still have yet to face Wofford, Furman, and Georgia Southern. Great team, but not my pick. They are number 3 for me.
Jacksonville State is next. Yes, this team is facing the easy conference, but they did beat Ole Miss. Even if Ole Miss is weak this year, they still went into Oxford and won. They also beat Chattanooga, and a surprisingly tough Georgia State squad in Georgia. They found a way to beat Eastern Illinios as well. They have been tested, and they have survived. They have a strong running attack that does not feature one back to the exclusion of others. This also helps quarterback Marques Ivory not get hit very often as he is not called on to run too much. Ivory can throw as well with 9 TDs. Coty Blanchard has another 6 showing that they can have a balanced attack. Blanchard has 238 yards rushing as well. Jamaal Young has the most TD’s, longest run, and highest per carry average, but Calvin Middleton, who missed two games, has the most attempts and highest per game average. Darius Barksdals has the second most carries on the team, and thus cannot be ignored. I have them at 2, and a clear threat to win it all.
Delaware is my top team in the nation. They are too good to ignore. They beat James Madison in Virginia (13-10), and they have taken down everyone else fairly comfortably. Yes, they still need to face William and Mary as well as Umass and Villanova, and even New Hampshire. They also have not played much away from home. Still, Delaware has a couple of really amazing stats. They have a team total of 14 interceptions. One of which was returned for a TD. Fourteen interceptions is two a game. They have only thrown two themselves, one of which was by the back up. Add in two fumble returns, and you can see why the Blue Hen Defense is a solid group. A group that held the team that beat Virginia Tech to only 10 points. The second very impressive stat comes from freshman running back Andrew Pierce. Pierce is averaging 125 yards a game on the ground plus another 11 in receptions. If he has another average game in his next contest, he will go over 1,000 yards for the season. That is amazing. Can anyone stop him? As good as DeAndre Presley is, I think Pierce has my vote as top performer. Oh yeah, the team as a whole averages over 200 yards on the ground a game, add in 171 through the air, and you have a winning combo. I also like having Pat Devlin as the quarterback. This senior has experience and can be trusted in close games.
What is even more impressive is how this team is built for the future. Yes, losing Pat Devlin next year will be a loss, as will leading receiver Philip Thaxton and 3rd option Tommy Crosby. But Nihja White and Rob Jones are sophomores. Jones actually has the best yards per catch average. Red Shirt Freshman Trevor Sasek is getting playing time and looks to be a good replacement for Devlin at quarterback. Oh yeah, they get Andrew Pierce back. His main back up, Leon Jackson is also a sophomore. They will be running behind basically the same offensive line as only one single senior is on the O-Line anywhere including the bench. Defense is much the same story. Leading tackler, Andrew Harrison, junior. Tied with Harrison when we count combined tackles, Paul Worrilow, Sophomore. Worrilow is also the one with two fumble recoveries. Now their secondary is littered with Seniors, which means that next year might see a decrease in interceptions. They return only Marcus Burley, Sophomore, is actually third on the team in solo tackles. Still, the young guys are getting playing time behind them, and if they gel then the team will be tough to stop next year too.
There you have my top five and pick to win it all. Later I will post the rest of my top 10, and my one dark horse, who I actually think is the team with the second best chance to win. Wait and see . . .
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